Ukukalwa kwekhredithi

Ukukalwa kwesikweletu kuwukusebenzisa imodeli yezibalo ukuguqula ulwazi ngomboleki lube inombolo eyodwa elinganisela ukuthi kungenzeka kangakanani ukuthi bakhokhe. Inombolo leyo iqhathaniswa ngokumelana nomkhawulo, futhi umkhawulo lowo unquma isinqumo sokuvuma, ukudlulisela noma ukwenqaba.

Isimangalo esingaphansi kokukalwa sincane futhi kufanele sishiwwe ngokunembile: izici ezabikezela ukukhokha kubaboleki besikhathi esedlule zizobikezela nakwabesikhathi esizayo. Inombolo ayisona isahlulelo ngomuntu. Iyithuluzi lokuhlela ngezinga — isho ukuthi lo mfakisicelo ufana neqembu elakhokha ngezinga elithile, akukho okunye. Ayinambono ngomuntu ngamunye futhi ayenzi isithembiso ngomphumela wanoma yimuphi umuntu.

Lokho kuncipha futhi kuwumthombo wamandla ayo. Imodeli isebenzisa umthetho ofanayo kuwo wonke umfakisicelo, ngemilisekhondi, empeleni ngezindleko ezengeziwe eziyiziro, futhi ayikhathali, ayihlaselwa futhi ayincengwa. Lapho inani lemali mboleko liphezulu futhi inani ngalinye liphansi, alukho uhlobo lokuhlola lwemali mboleko lomuntu oluncintisana ngezindleko.

Inombolo, ikhadi lokukala, isilinganiso nombiko

Amagama amane asetshenziswa ngokushintshana kodwa akufanele.

• Inombolo yesikweletu: Inombolo ekhiqizwa kumfakisicelo othile ngesikhathi esithile
• Ikhadi lokukala: Imodeli ngokwayo — izici, izisindo zazo kanye nesakhiwo samaphuzu esikhiqiza izinombolo
• Umbiko wesikweletu: Irekhodi eliyiqiniso lama-akhawunti omboleki kanye nomlando wokukhokha, eligcinwe yibhuro
• Isilinganiso sesikweletu: Ukuhlolwa kokwethembeka kwezimali kwebhizinisi, ngokuvamile kuvezwa ngesikali sezinhlamvu futhi kusetshenziswa ezinkampanini nakohulumeni kunakumuntu ngamunye.
• Amathuba okuhluleka ukukhokha (PD): Ithuba elilinganiselwayo lokuhluleka ukukhokha elihambisana nenombolo, elivezwa njengephesenti.

Inombolo itholakala embikweni ngekhadi lokukala. Umbiko uwubufakazi; inombolo iwukuhlaziya. Umboleki ophikisana nesinqumo ngokuvamile uphikisana nokuthile okusembikweni, futhi lezi zinto ezimbili kufanele zihlukaniseke ukuze zikwazi ukumphendula.

Indlela ikhadi lokukala elisebenza ngayo.

Amakhadi okukala amaningi asetshenziswayo angamamodeli asekelwe emaphuzwini asuselwa ekuhlaziyweni kwe-logistic regression. Isici ngasinye sihlukaniswa ngezigaba, isigaba ngasinye sinamaphuzu, bese amaphuzu ayahlanganiswa.

Ukulandelana kokwakhiwa, ngamafuphi:

1. Chaza okuhle nokubi. "Okubi" ngokuvamile yimali mboleko efinyelela esimweni esithile sokuphuza ukukhokha, ngokuvamile izinsuku ezingama-90 emva kosuku lokukhokha — phakathi nesikhathi esinqunyiwe. Le ncazelo inquma yonke into elandelayo, futhi ukuyishintsha kamuva kwenza imodeli ingasebenzi.
2. Beka izikhathi zokubheka nokusebenza. Izici zithathwa ngesikhathi sesicelo; ukusebenza kukalwa esikhathini esilandelayo, ngokuvamile izinyanga eziyi-12 kuya kweziyi-18. Imodeli ingakhiwa kuphela uma sekunemali mboleko eyanele eke yaba nesikhathi sokuya kokubi.
3. Hlanganisa isampula lokuthuthukisa. Izikweletu ezanele, futhi okubaluleke kakhulu ukuthi kube nezikweletu ezimbi ezanele, ukuze ulinganise ngokwethembeka.
4. Khetha futhi uhlukanise izici ngamabhendi. Hlola isici ngasinye esingaba yikhandidethi ukuze uthole amandla okubikezela nokuzinza, bese uhlanganisa amanani aso abe amabhendi anamazinga ezikweletu ezimbi ahluke kakhulu.
5. Linganisa imodeli bese wabela amaphuzu. Guqula ama-coefficients alinganisiwe abe isikali samaphuzu esinezinombolo eziphelele abasebenzi nezinhlelo abangasisebenzisa.
6. Qinisekisa ngokusebenzisa isampula lokuhlola imodeli engakaze ilibone.
7. Beka umkhawulo. kanye nezenzo ezihambisana nebhendi ngalinye lamaphuzu.
8. Qapha futhi ulinganise kabusha. njengoba isibalo sabantu abafaka izicelo nendawo ezungezile zishintsha.

Isibonelo esisetshenziwe: ikhadi lamaphuzu lesicelo elilula.

Isikhathi ebhizinisini.

• Ngaphansi konyaka owodwa: amaphuzu ayi-0.
• Iminyaka engu-1–3: amaphuzu ayi-15.
• Ngaphezu kweminyaka engu-3: amaphuzu ayi-25.

Umlando wokuboleka nombolekisi.

• Umjikelezo wokuqala: amaphuzu ayi-0.
• Umjikelezo wesi-2–3: amaphuzu ayi-20.
• Umjikelezo wesi-4 noma ngaphezulu: amaphuzu ayi-30.

Umphumela we-credit bureau.

• Irekhodi elibi: Ukwenqaba okuzenzakalelayo.
• Ifayela elihlanzekile nelincane: amaphuzu ayi-10.
• Ifayela elihlanzekile nelimisiwe: amaphuzu ayi-20.

Isilinganiso sesikweletu nomholo.

• Ngaphezu kuka-45%: amaphuzu ayi-0.
• 35–45%: amaphuzu ayi-10.
• Ngaphansi kuka-35%: amaphuzu ayi-20.

Indlela yokonga noma yokufaka imali.

• Akukho: amaphuzu ayi-0.
• Okungajwayelekile: amaphuzu ayi-5.
• Okujwayelekile: amaphuzu ayi-15.

Umfakisicelo oseneminyaka emibili ebhizinisini, osemjikelezweni wakhe wesithathu wokuboleka, onefayela lebhuro elimsulwa kodwa elincane, i-DTI engu-38% kanye nokonga okuvamile uthola amaphuzu 15 + 20 + 10 + 10 + 15 = 70.

• 75 nangaphezulu: Ukuvunywa okuzenzakalelayo ngenani eligcwele eliceliwe
• 60–74: Vuma, ngenani elinqunyelwe noma kudingeke isibambiso esengeziwe
• 45–59: Dlulisela ekuhlolweni ngesandla
• Ngaphansi kuka-45: Nqaba

Kumaphuzu angu-70, umfakisicelo uyavunywa ngenani elinqunyelwe. Ibhendi lokudlulisela libaluleke kakhulu kunalokho elibukeka ngako: yilapho umbolekisi omncane egcina khona ukwahlulela komuntu ohlelweni ezimeni lapho imodeli ingaqiniseki kancane kakhulu khona, kunokuba alahle ukwahlulela ngokuphelele.

Izinhlobo zokunikeza amaphuzu

Ukunikeza amaphuzu kwesicelo kunquma ngabafakisicelo abasha kusetshenziswa ulwazi olutholakala ngesikhathi sokufaka isicelo. Lokhu yikho iningi labantu elikushoyo uma likhuluma ngokunikeza amaphuzu kwesikweletu.

Ukunikeza amaphuzu ngokuziphatha kusebenzisa ukuziphatha komboleki kuma-akhawunti akhona — isikhathi sokukhokha, ukusetshenziswa komkhawulo, imikhuba yebhalansi — ukunquma ukukhushulwa kwemikhawulo, izengezo, ukuvuselelwa kanye nentengo. Ngokuvamile kubikezela kangcono ukwedlula ukunikeza amaphuzu kwesicelo, ngoba ukuziphatha kwangaphambilini nawe kudlula ukuziphatha okuqagelwa emphakathini. Noma yimuphi umbolekisi onababoleki abaphindayo angakwazi ukwakha ukunikeza amaphuzu ngokuziphatha kudala ngaphambi kokuba kube nedatha yokwenza ikhadi-lamaphuzu lesicelo eliphelele.

Ukunikeza amaphuzu kokuqoqa izikweletu kuhlela ama-akhawunti asilele ngokwamathuba okubuyiselwa kwemali, ukuze umzamo uye lapho ukhiqiza khona imali eningi. Umbolekisi onamacala okweleta amaningi kunabasebenzi usevele ebeka phambili ngaphandle kokukusho; ukunikeza amaphuzu kwenza lokho kubeka phambili kube sobala.

Ukunikeza amaphuzu kwebhuro kukhiqizwa yibhuro lesikweletu ngokwayo kuwo wonke amalungu ayo abikayo, ngakho-ke libona izibopho kwabanye ababolekisi imodeli yangaphakathi engakwazi ukuzibona.

Amakhadi amaphuzu enziwe ngokwezifiso noma angaphakathi akhelwe phezu kwephothifoliyo yombolekisi uqobo lwakhe. Zilingana kahle kakhulu nesisekelo samakhasimende sangempela kunemodeli ejwayelekile, futhi zidinga ukuthi umbolekisi abe nephothifoliyo elifanele ukwenziwa imodeli.

Ukunikeza amaphuzu ngedatha ehlukile

Ukunikeza amaphuzu okuvamile kucabangela ukuthi ifayela lebhuro likhona. Ezimakethe lapho iningi lababoleki lingakaze liphathe imali mboleko esemthethweni, lowo mcabango ushiya ngaphandle iningi labantu, futhi idatha ehlukile iyindlela yokudlula lokho.

• Umlando wokuthengiselana kwemali yeselula: Ukujwayeleka komholo, imikhuba yebhalansi, ukuzithiba ezindlekweni, imali engenayo yebhizinisi
• Ukuziphatha kokuthenga i-airtime nedatha: Ukuzinza komholo kanye nokuhamba kahle kwemali ngezinga eliphezulu kakhulu
• Ubude besikhathi sokuba nefoni kanye nenkampani yocingo: Ukuzinza, ukutholakala, ubude bomkhondo ongaqinisekiswa
• Amarekhodi ezinkokhelo zezinsiza nezokuqasha: Ukuzimisela ukufeza izibopho eziphindaphindekayo
• Imininingwane yokuthengiselana komthengisi noma ye-POS: Inzuzo yebhizinisi eqinisekisiwe kanye nokuhlukahluka kwezikhathi zonyaka
• Ukuhlolwa kwengqondo nokuziphatha: Izimo zengqondo nezici ezihlotshaniswa nokubuyisela imali lapho kungekho mlando wezezimali khona
• Amarekhodi eqembu nohlelo lokonga: Ukuzinikela eminikelweni kanye nokuma kontanga

Umlando wemali yeselula unamandla kakhulu kulezi ngokwenziwayo, ngoba usekelwe ekuthengiselaneni hhayi ekuvezweni nje, kunzima ukuwukhohlisa, futhi uminyene ngokwanele ukuthi uveze ukuhlukahluka kwezikhathi zonyaka. Futhi uzwele kakhulu: uwumlando ophelele wempilo yezezimali yomuntu, futhi ukuwusebenzisa kudinga isisekelo esisemthethweni, imvume enolwazi kanye nemithetho evikelayo yokugcinwa kwedatha ngaphansi komthetho wokuvikelwa kwedatha wemakethe ngayinye osebenza kuyo. Umbuzo wokuthobela lapha awuyona nje into ewumkhuba — ngokuvamile yiwona mkhawulo obophezelayo wokuthi imodeli yedatha ehlukile ingasetshenziswa nhlobo.

Ukushaya amaphuzu nokwahlulela

• Izindleko ngesinqumo ngasinye: Cishe zero (Ukushaya amaphuzu) vs. Phezulu (Ukuhlolwa kokwahlulela)
• Isivinini: Imizuzwana (Ukushaya amaphuzu) vs. Amahora kuya ezinsukwini (Ukuhlolwa kokwahlulela)
• Ukungaguquguquki: Okuphelele (Ukushaya amaphuzu) vs. Kuyahlukahluka ngesikhulu nangosuku (Ukuhlolwa kokwahlulela)
• Ababoleki abanomlando omncane wezikweletu: Kuphathwa kabi (Ukushaya amaphuzu) vs. Kuphathwa kahle (Ukuhlolwa kokwahlulela)
• Amacala angavamile noma ayinkimbinkimbi: Kuphathwa kabi (Ukushaya amaphuzu) vs. Kuphathwa kahle (Ukuhlolwa kokwahlulela)
• Ukuhloleka komthetho osetshenzisiwe: Okuphelele (Ukushaya amaphuzu) vs. Okuyingxenye (Ukuhlolwa kokwahlulela)
• Imininingwane edingekayo ukuze kwakhiwe: Enkulu (Ukushaya amaphuzu) vs. Ayikho (Ukuhlolwa kokwahlulela)

Isakhiwo esingokoqobo kubabolekisi abaningi akusiyona eyodwa noma enye. Ukushaya amaphuzu kubhekana nomthamo — izimalimboleko ezincane, ababoleki abaphindayo, imikhiqizo evamile — kanti ukuhlolwa kokwahlulela kubhekana nokudluliswa, ababoleki bokuqala abakhulu kanye nokuhlukile. Ukunquma ukuthi yiziphi izimalimboleko ezihamba ngayiphi indlela kuwukukhetha kwenqubomgomo, futhi ngokuvamile kuwumsebenzi wokuqala ongcono kunokuzama ukushaya amaphuzu kukho konke.

Okufanele ukwenze ngaphambi kokuba ube nemininingwane eyanele

Umbolekisi onezimalimboleko ezingu-800 kanye nokuhluleka ukukhokha okungu-40 akakwazi ukwakha ikhadi lokushaya amaphuzu elivumeleke ngokwezibalo, futhi ukulakha noma kunjalo kukhiqiza imodeli efaka umsindo okubukeka sengathi inokucophelela. Ukulandelana okusebenzayo:

1. Bhala imithetho yenqubomgomo phansi kuqala. Imithetho eqinile yokwala kanye nemibandela yokufaneleka, esetshenziswa ngokungaguquki. Lokhu akukona ukushaya amaphuzu, kodwa kuletha inzuzo enkulu yokungaguquguquki ngokushesha.
2. Qopha imininingwane ozoyidinga kamuva. Yonke imininingwane ongase ufune ukuyifaka kumodeli kufanele iqoshwe ngesikhathi sokufaka isicelo, emikhakheni ehlelekile, kusukela manje — kuhlanganise nezikhalazo ozinqabayo. Imodeli eyakhiwe kuphela ngezimalimboleko ezigunyaziwe ayiboni abafake izicelo obanqabile, futhi lelo gebe alikwazi ukubuyiselwa emuva.
3. Chaza okubi futhi qopha isimo sezikweletu ezingakhokhiwe ngendlela efanayo ukuze ukusebenza kukwazi ukukalwa uma kufika isikhathi.
4. Qala ngokufaka amaphuzu ngokuziphatha kubaboleki abaphindayo, lapho idatha ingeyakho futhi ifika ngokushesha kakhulu.
5. Yakha ikhadi lokuhlola isicelo uma sekunenqwaba eyanele yezikweletu ezivuthiwe ezinemiphumela yangempela emibi.
6. Lungisa kabusha, futhi uqhubeke ulungisa kabusha.

Isu lomkhawulo wokunqamula

Umkhawulo wokunqamula, hhayi imodeli, yiwona onquma umphumela webhizinisi. Ukuwuhambisa kuhwebelana ngevolumu ngokumelene nokulahlekelwa, futhi lokho kuhwebelana kuyisinqumo sangempela.

Izibalo eziyisibonelo zephothifoliyo eyodwa:

• Umkhawulo 50: izinga lokuvunywa elingu-78%, u-9.5% izinga elibi kwabavunyiwe
• Umkhawulo 60: izinga lokuvunywa elingu-64%, izinga elibi elingu-6.2% kwabavunyiwe.
• Umkhawulo 70: izinga lokuvunywa elingu-47%, izinga elibi elingu-3.8% kwabavunyiwe.
• Umkhawulo 80: izinga lokuvunywa elingu-29%, izinga elibi elingu-2.1% kwabavunyiwe.

Awukho umugqa olungile. Umkhawulo wokunqamula ofanele yilowo okwandisa inzuzo uma kubhekwa imajini yomkhiqizo, izindleko zekhasimende elitholiwe, izindleko zokuqoqa izikweletu kanye nokufisa kombolekisi — futhi umkhiqizo onemajini ephezulu, wesikhathi esifushane ungamukela ngokunengqondo izinga elibi elingalimaza umkhiqizo onemajini encane oqinisekisiwe lowo.

Iseti yokushintshana iyilensi ewusizo lapho kushintshwa umkhawulo wokunqamula noma kufakwa enye imodeli: akukhona ukuthi bangaki abafake izicelo abathintekayo, kodwa ukuthi yibaphi. Imodeli entsha egunyaza inani elifanayo lezikweletu ngenkathi ikhipha ingxenye yama-akhawunti amabi bese ifaka ingxenye yamahle ithuthukise iphothifoliyo ngaphandle kokushintsha ivolumu nhlobo.

Ukukala ukuthi ikhadi lokuhlola liyasebenza yini

Ukuhlukanisa — ikhono lemodeli lokuhlukanisa okuhle kokubi — kuvame ukubikwa njenge Gini coefficient, KS statistic noma AUC. Okuphezulu kungcono, bobathathu bahamba ndawonye, futhi okuthathwa njengokwamukelekayo kuncike kakhulu kuphothifoliyo nedatha etholakalayo; i-thin-file microloan scorecard ngeke lifinyelele ukuhlukanisa kwemodeli evuthiwe yokuboleka okuvikelwe, futhi akufanele lilinganiswe ngenye.

Ukwehluleka okubili kuvame kakhulu kunokuhlukanisa okubi ngesikhathi sokwakha:

Ukuphambuka kwesibalo sabantu. Abafaka izicelo abafika namuhla bahlukile kusampula yokuthuthukisa — isiteshi esisha, umkhiqizo omusha, indawo entsha, ukumaketha okusha. Ukuqapha ukuzinza kwesibalo sabantu kukubamba lokhu, futhi kuyisizathu esivame kakhulu sokuthi ikhadi lamaphuzu eliqinisekiswe kahle lehle ekukhiqizweni.

Ukuphambuka kokulinganisa. Ukuhlelwa kusasebenza kodwa amazinga okulahlekelwa anamathele ebhendini ngayinye ashintshile, ngokuvamile ngenxa yokuthi izimo zishintshile. Ikhadi lamaphuzu lisahlunga ngendlela efanele kuyilapho umkhawulo usuphenduke ongalungile buthule.

Kokubili kutholakala ngokuqapha, futhi ukuqapha yingxenye yokunikeza amaphuzu eyakhiwa ekugcineni futhi ilahlwe kuqala.

Izingozi nemikhawulo

Ukuhlukanisa ngommeleli. Imodeli engazibandakanyi izici ezivikelwe isengakwazi ukuhlukanisa ngeziguquguquki ezihambisana nazo — indawo, uhlobo lwefoni, amaphethini wamagama, umqashi. Lokhu kwenzeka ngaphandle kokuthi noma ubani akuhlose, futhi kutholakala kuphela ngokuhlola imiphumela emaqenjini ngamabomu.

Ukuchazeka nesenzo esibi. Iziphathimandla eziningi zidinga ukuthi umfaka isicelo onqatshiwe atshelwe isizathu. Ikhadi lamaphuzu elisekelwe emaphuzwini lingakuphendula lokhu ngokuqondile ngokukhomba ukuthi yiziphi izici ezidle amaphuzu amaningi. Amamodeli okufunda ngomshini anzima kakhulu awakwazi ngaso sonke isikhathi ukwenza lokhu ngaphandle komsebenzi owengeziwe, okuwumkhawulo ophilayo wokulawula kunokuba kube yinkinga yobuchwepheshe.

Idatha ezigcwalisa ngokwayo. Abafaka izicelo onqabayo abakhiqizi idatha yokusebenza, ngakho imodeli ayifundi ukuthi ngabe yayiqinisile yini ngabo, futhi isibalo sabantu esibonayo siyancipha ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Ukudlala ngemithetho. Uma umthetho usaziwa, kuhlelwa ngokumelene nawo — ngababoleki, ngama-ejenti, nangabasebenzi abane imigomo yomthamo. Izici ezishibhile ukukhohliswa zonakala ngokushesha kakhulu.

Ukuphuka kwesakhiwo. Imodeli eyakhelwe phezu kwedatha yangaphambi kokuphazamiseka ayichazi isibalo sabantu sangemuva kokuphazamiseka. Ukunyakaza kwemali, ukuwa komkhakha, izinguquko zenqubomgomo kanye nezifo eziwumshayabhuqe konke kwephula ukucabanga kokuthi okwedlule kubikezela ikusasa.

Ukunemba okungamanga. Amaphuzu angu-68 abukeka enembile kakhulu kunokuthi "ukufaneleka ngokwakweletwa ngokunengqondo". Akunjalo. Isilinganiso esiyisisekelo sinesikhawu sokuzethemba esingaboniswa muntu.

Lapho ukunikezwa kwamaphuzu okweletwa kuhamba kabi khona ekusebenzeni.

Ukuthenga imodeli ejwayelekile nokuyisebenzisa ingashintshiwe. Ikhadi lamaphuzu elakhiwe ngesibalo sabantu, umkhiqizo nemakethe ehlukile liyihyphothisis yokuqala, hhayi umthetho wesinqumo.

Ukwakhela phezu kwe zikweletu ezigunyaziwe kuphela. Ukuhlaziya izikweletu ezinqatshiwe kukhona ngoba lokhu kuchema kubi futhi akubonakali.

Ungalokothi ukulinganisa kabusha. Ikhadi lamaphuzu liyisithombe sabantu ngesikhathi esithile. Uma lishiywe lodwa iminyaka emine liba umhlobiso.

Ukubekela eceleni njalo. Uma izikhulu zibekela eceleni ingxenye enkulu yezinqumo, kusho ukuthi imodeli inephutha noma ukubekela eceleni kunephutha, futhi akekho olandelela ukuthi yikuphi. Izinga lokubekela eceleni kanye nokusebenza kokubekela eceleni yizinombolo ezimbili eziphendula lokho.

Ukunikeza amaphuzu ngaphandle kwe sisekelo sokuvikelwa kwedatha. Amamodeli edatha ehlukile ikakhulukazi akhelwe olwazini lomuntu siqu oludinga izizathu ezisemthethweni zokuqoqa, ukucubungula nokugcina. Ukufaka ukuthotyelwa kwemithetho ngemva kokusetshenziswa kunzima kakhulu kunokuklanyela khona.

Ukudida amaphuzu nokuhlola. Amaphuzu alinganisela ukuzimisela kanye namathuba. Awahloli ubunikazi, awaqinisekisi injongo yemalimboleko, awabeki inani noma ukuthi isibambiso singaphoqelelwa, futhi awahloli ukuthi imibhalo yesibambiso ingeyangempela.