Ukufakwa kwamanqaku etyala

Ukunika amanqaku etyala kukusetyenziswa kwemodeli yezibalo ukuguqula ulwazi ngomboleki lube linani elinye eliqikelela ukuba kungenzeka kangakanani ukuba abuyise. Inqaku lithelekiswa nomda wokusika, kwaye umda wokusika uqhuba isigqibo sokuvuma, ukudlulisela okanye ukwala.

Ibango elisisiseko sokunikwa amanqaku lincinci kwaye kufanelekile ukuba lichazwe ngokuchanekileyo: iimpawu eziye zaqikelela ukuhlawulwa kwetyala kubaboleki bangaphambili ziya kukuqikelela nakwababoleki bexesha elizayo. Inqaku alisosigwebo ngomntu. Sisixhobo sokuhlela ngokwemigangatho — sithetha ukuba lo mfaki-sicelo ufana neqela eliye lahlawula ngezinga elithile, akukho nto ingaphaya. Akukho luvo ngomntu ngamnye kwaye akukho sithembiso ngesiphumo somntu ngamnye.

Obu buncinci bukwayintsusa yamandla. Imodeli isebenzisa umthetho ofanayo kuye wonke umfaki-sicelo, ngemilisekhondi, ngeendleko ezongezelelweyo ezinguziro ngokwenyani, kwaye ayidinwa, ayijoliswanga okanye ayicengwa. Apho umthamo weemali-mboleko uphezulu kwaye ixabiso lento nganye liphantsi, akukho hlobo lobuntu lokuhlolwa kwetyala olunokukhuphisana ngeendleko.

Inqaku, ikhadi lamanqaku, umlinganiselo nengxelo

Amagama amane asetyenziswa ngokutshintshiselana kodwa akufanelekanga ukuba asetyenziswe ngolo hlobo.

• Inqaku letyala: Linani eliveliswa kumfaki-sicelo othile ngexesha elithile.
• Ikhadi lamanqaku: Yimodeli ngokwayo — iimpawu, ubunzima bazo kunye nolwakhiwo lwamanqaku oluvelisa amanqaku.
• Ingxelo yetyala: Yirekhodi eyinyani yee-akhawunti zomboleki nembali yokuhlawula, egcinwe yibheni.
• Umlinganiselo wetyala: Uvavanyo lokuthembeka kwetyala lequmrhu, oludla ngokuboniswa ngesikali soonobumba kwaye lusetyenziswa kwiinkampani nakurhulumente kunokuba kubantu ngabanye.
• Ukunokwenzeka kokungahlawuli (PD): Lithuba eliqikelelwayo lokungahlawuli elihambelana nenqaku, eliboniswa njengepesenti.

Inqaku lifunyanwa kwingxelo ngekhadi lamanqaku. Ingxelo bubungqina; inqaku yintelekelelo. Umboleki ophikisa isigqibo udla ngokuphikisa into ethile ekwingxelo, kwaye ezi zinto zimbini kufuneka zikwazi ukwahlulwa ukuze umboleki aphenduleke.

Indlela elisebenza ngayo ikhadi lamanqaku

Uninzi lwamakhadi amanqaku asetyenziswayo ziimodeli ezisekelwe kumanqaku ezisuka kwi-logistic regression. Uphawu ngalunye lwahlulwa lube ngamanqanaba, inqanaba ngalinye linamanqaku, kwaye amanqaku ayadityaniswa.

Ulandelelwano lokwakha, ngokushwankathelwa:

1. Chaza okulungileyo nokubi. "Okubi" kudla ngokuba yimali-mboleko efikelela kwimo ethile yokuba semva kwetyala — ngokuqhelekileyo iintsuku ezingama-90 emva komhla wokuhlawula — phakathi kwexesha elimiselweyo. Le ngcaciso imisela yonke into elandelayo, kwaye ukuyitshintsha kamva kwenza imodeli ingasebenzi.
2. Misa iifestile zokujonga nokusebenza. Iimpawu zithathwa ngexesha lokufaka isicelo; ukusebenza kulinganiswa kwixesha elilandelayo, ngokuqhelekileyo iinyanga ezili-12 ukuya kwezili-18. Imodeli inokwakhiwa kuphela xa iimali-mboleko ezaneleyo zibe nexesha lokuba zibe mbi.
3. Qokelela isampuli yophuhliso. Iimali-mboleko ezaneleyo, kwaye okubaluleke kakhulu, ezaneleyo ezimbi iimali-mboleko, ukuze uqikelele ngokuthembekileyo.
4. Khetha uze uhlele iimpawu ngokwamaqela. Vavanya inguqu nganye engumgqatswa kumandla okuqikelela nokuzinza, emva koko wahlule amaxabiso ayo ngokwamaqela anamazinga eemali-mboleko ezimbi ahluke ngokubonakalayo.
5. Linganisa imodeli uze wabe amanqaku. Guqula iiccoefficients ezilinganisiweyo zibe sisikali samanqaku samanani apheleleyo esinokusetyenziswa ngabasebenzi neenkqubo.
6. Qinisekisa kwisampuli ebekelwe bucala engazange ibonwe yimodeli.
7. Beka umda wokunqumla kunye namanyathelo anxulumene neqela ngalinye lamanqaku.
8. Hlola kwaye uphinde ulungelelanise njengoko abantu abafaka izicelo nokusingqongileyo kuguquka.

Umzekelo osebenzayo: ikhadi lamanqaku lesicelo elilula.

Ixesha eshishinini.

• Ngaphantsi konyaka omnye: amanqaku 0.
• Iminyaka 1–3: amanqaku ali-15.
• Ngaphezulu kweminyaka emi-3: amanqaku angama-25.

Imbali yokuboleka kumbolekisi.

• Umjikelo wokuqala: amanqaku 0.
• Umjikelo wesi-2 ukuya kowesi-3: amanqaku angama-20.
• Umjikelo wesi-4 okanye ngaphezulu: amanqaku angama-30.

Isiphumo sebureyu yamatyala.

• Irekhodi embi: Ukwaliwa ngokuzenzekelayo.
• Ifayile ecocekileyo, encinci: amanqaku ali-10.
• Ifayile ecocekileyo, esele inembali: amanqaku angama-20.

Umlinganiselo wetyala ukuya kumvuzo.

• Ngaphezulu kwama-45%: amanqaku 0.
• Ama-35 ukuya kuma-45%: amanqaku ali-10.
• Ngaphantsi kwama-35%: amanqaku angama-20.

Indlela yokonga okanye yokufaka imali.

• Akukho: amanqaku 0.
• Ngokungaqhelekanga: amanqaku ama-5.
• Rhoqo: amanqaku ali-15.

Umfaki-sicelo oneminyaka emibini eshishinini, okumjikelo wakhe wesithathu wemboleko, onefayile yebhuyiro ecocekileyo kodwa encinci, i-DTI ye-38% kunye namanqaku okonga rhoqo 15 + 20 + 10 + 10 + 15 = 70.

• 75 nangaphezulu: Ukuvunywa okuzenzekelayo ngesixa esipheleleyo esiceliweyo
• 60–74: Vuma, ngesixa esilinganiselweyo okanye kufuneke isibambiso esongezelelweyo
• 45–59: Dlulisela ukuze kwenziwe uvavanyo lwezandla
• Ngaphantsi kwama-45: Yala

Kwi-70, umfaki-sicelo uyavunywa ngesixa esilinganiselweyo. Ibhendi yokudlulisela ibaluleke ngaphezu kwendlela ebonakala ngayo: kulapho umbolekisi omncinci agcina khona isigqibo somntu kwinkqubo kwiimeko apho imodeli ingaqinisekanga kakhulu, kunokuba alahle isigqibo ngokupheleleyo.

Iindidi zokubalwa kwamanqaku

Ukubalwa kwamanqaku kwisicelo kugqiba ngabafaki-zicelo abatsha kusetyenziswa ulwazi olufumaneka ngexesha lesicelo. Oku koko abantu abaninzi bakuthethayo xa besithi ukubalwa kwamanqaku etyala.

Ukubalwa kwamanqaku ngokuziphatha kusebenzisa indlela yokuziphatha yomboleki kwiiakhawunti ezikhoyo — ixesha lokuhlawula, ukusetyenziswa, iindlela zebhalansi — ukugqiba ngokunyuswa komda, ukongezelelwa, ukuvuselelwa kunye namaxabiso. Ngokuqhelekileyo kunokuxela kwangaphambili ngaphezu kokubalwa kwamanqaku kwisicelo, kuba indlela yokuziphatha yakudala kunye nawe iyoyisa indlela eqikelelweyo evela kuluntu. Nawuphi na umbolekisi onababoleki abaphindayo unokwakha ukubalwa kwamanqaku ngokuziphatha kwangethuba elide ngaphambi kokuba abe nedatha epheleleyo ye scorecard yesicelo.

Ukubalwa kwamanqaku okuqokelela kubeka iiakhawunti ezisemva ngokwamathuba okubuyiselwa kwemali, ukuze umzamo uye apho uvelisa khona imali eninzi. Umbolekisi onamatyala asemva amaninzi kunamagosa usele esenza ukubeka phambili ngokungacacanga; ukubalwa kwamanqaku kwenza ukubeka phambili kucace.

Ukubalwa kwamanqaku ebhuyiro kwenziwa libhuyiro letyala ngokwalo kuwo onke amalungu alo anika ingxelo, ngoko ke libona izibophelelo kwabanye ababolekisi imodeli yangaphakathi engenakuzibona.

I-scorecards ezenzelwe ngokwezifiso okanye ezangaphakathi zakhelwe phezu kwipotfoliyo yombolekisi ngokwakhe. Zilingana nesiseko sabathengi sokwenyani ngcono kakhulu kunemodeli eqhelekileyo, kwaye zifuna ukuba umbolekisi abe nepotfoliyo efanele ukwenziwa imodeli.

Ukubalwa kwamanqaku ngedatha engenye

Ukubalwa kwamanqaku okuqhelekileyo kuthatha ukuba kukho ifayile yebhuyiro. Kwiimarike apho uninzi lwababoleki lungazange lube nemboleko esesikweni, loo ngcinga iyabakhupha uninzi lwabemi, kwaye idatha engenye yindlela yokujikeleza oko.

• Imbali yeentengiselwano zemali yeselula: Ukuqheleka kwengeniso, iipateni zebhalansi, uqeqesho lwenkcitho, i-turnover yeshishini
• Indlela yokuziphatha yokuthenga i-airtime nedatha: Ukuzinza kwengeniso kunye nokuhamba kakuhle kwemali engenayo nephumayo ngokuphindaphindwa okuphezulu kakhulu
• Ubude bexesha lokusetyenziswa kwefowuni kunye nenkampani yonxibelelwano: Uzinzo, ukufumaneka, ubude bomkhondo onokuqinisekiswa
• Iirekhodi zokuhlawula iutility kunye nerente: Ukuzimisela ukuhlangabezana nezibophelelo eziphindaphindwayo
• Idatha yeentengiselwano zomrhwebi okanye ze-POS: Ingeniso yeshishini eqinisekisiweyo kunye nokuguquguquka kwamaxesha onyaka
• Uvavanyo lwe-psychometric: Izimo zengqondo neempawu ezinxulumene nokuhlawula apho kungekho mbali yezemali ikhoyo
• Iirekhodi zamaqela kunye nezikimu zokonga: Ukuziphatha komnikelo kunye nokuma phakathi koontanga

Imbali yemali yeselula yeyona inamandla kwezi xa kusenziwa, kuba isekelwe kwiintengiselwano kunokuba ibe sisibhengezo nje, kunzima ukuyenza ngobuxoki, kwaye ixinene ngokwaneleyo ukuba iveze amaxesha onyaka. Ikwayeyona nto inobuntununtunu: yirekhodi epheleleyo yobomi bezemali bomntu, kwaye ukuyisebenzisa kufuna isiseko esisemthethweni, imvume enolwazi kunye nemithetho yokugcina enokuthetheleleka phantsi komthetho wokukhuselwa kwedatha kwimarike nganye osebenza kuyo. Umbuzo wokuthotyelwa apha awuyonto nje yokwenza — uhlala ungowona mqobo obophelelayo wokuba ingaba imodeli yedatha engenye ingasetyenziswa kwaphela na.

Ukunika amanqaku kunye nokugweba

• Iindleko ngesigqibo ngasinye: Phantse zero (Ukunika amanqaku) vs. Phezulu (Uvavanyo lokugweba)
• Isantya: Imizuzwana (Ukunika amanqaku) vs. Iiyure ukuya kwiintsuku (Uvavanyo lokugweba)
• Ukungaguquguquki: Epheleleyo (Ukunika amanqaku) vs. Iyahluka ngokwegosa nangosuku (Uvavanyo lokugweba)
• Ababoleki abanembali encinci yezemali: Baphathwa kakubi (Ukunika amanqaku) vs. Baphathwa kakuhle (Uvavanyo lokugweba)
• Iimeko ezingaqhelekanga okanye ezintsonkothileyo: Ziphathwa kakubi (Ukunika amanqaku) vs. Ziphathwa kakuhle (Uvavanyo lokugweba)
• Ukuphicothwa komgaqo osetyenzisiweyo: Ipheleleyo (Ukunika amanqaku) vs. Inxalenye (Uvavanyo lokugweba)
• Idatha efunekayo ekwakheni: Eninzi (Ukunika amanqaku) vs. Akukho (Uvavanyo lokugweba)

Ubume obunokwenzeka kubabolekisi abaninzi asikokunye okanye okunye. Ukunika amanqaku kusingatha ubuninzi — iimali-mboleko ezincinci, ababoleki abaphindayo, iimveliso eziqhelekileyo — kwaye uvavanyo lokugweba lusingatha ukudluliselwa, ababoleki bokuqala bemboleko enkulu kunye neemeko ezingaphandle. Ukugqiba ukuba yeyiphi imali-mboleko ehamba ngayiphi indlela lukhetho lomgaqo-nkqubo, kwaye ngokuqhelekileyo yiprojekthi yokuqala engcono kunokuzama ukunika amanqaku kuyo yonke into.

Yintoni emayenziwe phambi kokuba kubekho idatha eyaneleyo

Umbolekisi onemali-mboleko ezingama-800 nokusilela ukuhlawula okungama-40 akakwazi ukwakha ikhadi lamanqaku elamkelekileyo ngokweenkcukacha-manani, kwaye ukulakha phofu kuvelisa imodeli efaka ingxolo ebonakala ngathi ingqongqo. Ulandelelwano olusebenzayo:

1. Bhala imithetho yomgaqo-nkqubo phantsi kuqala. Izithintelo ezingqongqo kunye neenqobo zokufaneleka, ezisetyenziswa ngokungaguquguqukiyo. Oku asikokunika amanqaku, kodwa kunika uninzi lwenzuzo yokungaguquguquki ngoko nangoko.
2. Qokelela idatha oza kuyidinga kamva. Lonke uphawu onokufuna ukulinganisa kufuneka lushicilelwe kwisicelo, kwiindawo ezicwangcisiweyo, ukususela ngoku — kuquka nakwizicelo ozalileyo. Imodeli eyakhiwe kuphela kwiimali-mboleko ezamkelweyo ayibaboni abafaki-zicelo obalileyo, kwaye loo msantsa awunakulungiseka emva kwexesha.
3. Chaza ukuba yintoni embi kwaye urekhode ubume bamatyala ashiyekileyo ngokungaguqukiyo ukuze ukusebenza kube nokulinganiswa xa ixesha lifika.
4. Qala ngokufaka amanqaku okuziphatha kubaboleki ababuyayo, apho idatha yeyakho kwaye ifika ngokukhawuleza kakhulu.
5. Yakha ikhadi lamanqaku lesicelo xa sele kukho inani elaneleyo leemali-mboleko ezivuthiweyo ezineziphumo ezibi zokwenene.
6. Phinda ulinganise, kwaye uqhubeke uphinda ulinganisa.

Isicwangciso somda wokusika

Umda wokusika, hayi imodeli, ngowo umisela isiphumo seshishini. Ukuwushenxisa kuthengisa umthamo ngokuchasene nelahleko, kwaye olo rhwebo siso sigqibo sokwenyani.

Amanani angumzekelo wepotifoliyo enye:

• Umda wokusika 50: izinga lokuvunywa elingama-78%, i-9.5% izinga lobubi kwabavunyiweyo
• Umda wokusika 60: izinga lokuvunywa elingama-64%, i-6.2% izinga lobubi kwabavunyiweyo
• Umda wokusika 70: izinga lokuvunywa elingama-47%, i-3.8% izinga lobubi kwabavunyiweyo
• Umda wokusika 80: izinga lokuvunywa elingama-29%, i-2.1% izinga lobubi kwabavunyiweyo

Akukho mqolo uchanekileyo. Umda wokusika ofanelekileyo ngulowo unyusa inzuzo xa kujongwa umyinge wenzuzo wemveliso, iindleko zomthengi ofunyenweyo, iindleko zokuqokelela amatyala nomdla wombolekisi — kwaye imveliso enomyinge wenzuzo ophezulu, inexesha elifutshane ingalamkela ngengqiqo izinga lobubi elinokulonakalisa enomyinge wenzuzo ocekethekileyo ekhuselweyo leyo.

Le sethi yotshintsho yilensi eluncedo xa kuguqulwa umda wokusika okanye kubekwa enye imodeli: hayi ukuba bangaphi abafaki-zicelo abachaphazelekayo, kodwa ukuba ngoobani abo. Imodeli entsha evuma inani elifanayo leemali-mboleko ngelixa isusa iqela leeakhawunti ezimbi ize ifake iqela leezilungileyo iphucule ipotifoliyo ngaphandle kokutshintsha umthamo kwaphela.

Ukulinganisa ukuba ikhadi lamanqaku liyasebenza na

Ukwahlula — amandla emodeli okwahlula okulungileyo kokubi — ngokuqhelekileyo kuxelwa njenge Gini coefficient, KS statistic okanye AUC. Ukuphakama kungcono, zonke ezintathu zihamba kunye, kwaye into ethathwa njengeyamkelekayo ixhomekeke kakhulu kwipotfoliyo nakwidatha ekhoyo; i-scorecard yemali-mboleko encinci enefayile encinci ayizukufikelela kulwahlulo lwemodeli evuthiweyo yokubolekisa ngesibambiso, kwaye akufunekanga ukuba igwetywe ngokuthelekiswa nayo.

Iintsilelo ezimbini zixhaphake ngaphezu kokwahlula okubi ngexesha lokwakha:

Ukukhukuliseka kwabantu. Abafaki-zicelo abafika namhlanje bohlukile kwisampulu yophuhliso — ijelo elitsha, imveliso entsha, indawo entsha, intengiso entsha. Ukubeka esweni uzinzo lwabantu kuyakubhaqa oku, kwaye sesona sizathu sixhaphakileyo sokuba i-scorecard ebiqinisekise kakuhle iwohloke ekusetyenzisweni.

Ukukhukuliseka kolungelelwaniso. Ukuhlelwa ngokwemigangatho kusasebenza kodwa amazinga okulahleka ancanyathiselwe kwibhendi nganye atshintshile, ngokuqhelekileyo ngenxa yokuba iimeko zitshintshile. I-scorecard isahlula ngokuchanekileyo ngelixa umda wokusika uye waba yimbi ngaphandle kwesaziso.

Zombini zifunyanwa ngokubekwa esweni, kwaye ukubekwa esweni yinxalenye yokufaka amanqaku eyakhiwa ekugqibeleni ize iyekwe kuqala.

Imingcipheko kunye nemida

Ucalucalulo olungangqalanga. Imodeli engabandakanyi iimpawu ezikhuselweyo isenako ukucalula ngokusebenzisa iinguqu ezinxulumene nazo — indawo, uhlobo lwefowuni, iipateni zamagama, umqeshi. Oku kwenzeka kungekho mntu ukwenza ngabom, kwaye kufunyanwa kuphela ngokuvavanya iziphumo kumaqela ngabom.

Ukuchazeka kunye nesenzo esingathandekiyo. Iindawo ezininzi zomthetho zifuna ukuba umfaki-sicelo ongamkelwanga axelelwe isizathu. I-scorecard esekwe kumanqaku ingakwazi ukuphendula oku ngokuthe ngqo ngokuchonga ukuba zeziphi iimpawu ezibangele ukulahlekelwa ngamanqaku amaninzi. Iimodeli zokufunda ngoomatshini ezintsonkothileyo azisoloko zikwazi ukwenza oku ngaphandle komsebenzi owongezelelweyo, nto leyo engumda osemthethweni ophilayo kunokuba yingxaki yobugcisa.

Idatha ezizalisekisa ngokwazo. Abafaki-zicelo obangamkelanga abavelisi datha yokusebenza, ngoko imodeli ayize ifunde ukuba yayichanile na ngabo, kwaye abantu ebonayo bayancipha ngokuhamba kwexesha.

Ukudlala ngomgaqo. Nje ukuba umgaqo waziwe, kufunwa iindlela zokuwaphula — ngababoleki, zii-arhente, nangabasebenzi abaneethagethi zomthamo. Iimpawu ekulula ukuzikhohlisa zohloka ngokukhawuleza.

Ukuqhawuka kwezakhiwo. Imodeli eyakhiwe ngedatha yangaphambi kothuselo ayichazi abantu abasemva kothuselo. Iintshukumo zexabiso lemali, ukuwa kwecandelo, iinguqu zomgaqo-nkqubo neebhubhane zonke zaphula ingcinga yokuba ixesha elidlulileyo liqikelela ikamva.

Ukuchaneka okuyinkohliso. Inqaku lama-68 libonakala lichanekile ngakumbi kunokuba "unokuthenjwa ngetyala ngokwaneleyo". Akunjalo. Uqikelelo olusisiseko lunoluhlu lokuzithemba olungaboniswa ngumntu.

Apho ukunika amanqaku etyala kuphosakele khona ekusebenzeni

Ukuthenga imodeli eqhelekileyo uze uyisebenzise ingatshintshwanga. I-scorecard ephuhliswe kubantu abahlukileyo, kwimveliso nakwimarike eyahlukileyo yingqikelelo yokuqala, hayi umgaqo wesigqibo.

Ukwakhela phezu kweemali-mboleko ezivunyiweyo kuphela. Ukuqikelelwa kwezicelo ezaliweyo kukho kanye ngenxa yokuba olu tyekelo luqatha kwaye alubonakali.

Ukungaze ulungelelanise kwakhona. Ikhadi lamanqaku ngumfanekiso wabantu ngexesha elithile. Ukuba lishiywe lodwa iminyaka emine liba ngumhombiso.

Ukutshitshisa rhoqo. Ukuba amagosa atshitshisa inxalenye enkulu yezigqibo, kungenzeka ukuba imodeli ayilunganga okanye utshitshiso alulunganga, yaye akukho mntu ulandelela ukuba yeyiphi. Izinga lokutshitshisa nokusebenza kokutshitshisa ngamanani amabini aphendula loo nto.

Ukufaka amanqaku ngaphandle kwesiseko sokukhuselwa kwedatha. Iimodeli zedatha eyahlukileyo ngokukodwa zakhiwe phezu kolwazi lomntu olufuna izizathu ezisemthethweni zokuqokelela, ukusetyenzwa nokugcinwa. Ukufakela ukuthotyelwa emva kokusetyenziswa kunzima kakhulu kunokuyila kusenzelwa oko.

Ukubhidanisa amanqaku kunye novavanyo. Amanqaku aqikelela ukuzimisela namathuba. Akangqini isazisi, akaqinisekisi injongo yemali-mboleko, akamiseli ixabiso okanye ukunyanzeliswa kwesibambiso, kwaye akakhangeli ukuba amaxwebhu okhuseleko ayinyani na.