Ukusilela ukuhlawula

Ukusilela ukuhlawula kukusilela komboleki ukuhlangabezana nezibophelelo zesivumelwano semali-mboleko. Kumsebenzi womngcipheko wetyala ayiyoncazelo ingacacanga yobunzima koko imeko echaziweyo — indawo apho umbolekisi ngokusemthethweni athatha khona utyhalomali njengolusileleyo, nto leyo ebangela iziphumo ezithile zobalo-mali, zekhontrakthi nezokusebenza.

Inkcazelo ibaluleke ngaphezu kwegama. Ukusilela ukuhlawula sisiganeko esiqikelelwa ziimodeli zokubakho kokusilela ukuhlawula, ekwakhelwe phezu kwaso izibalo zelahleko yetyala elindelekileyo, kwaye amakhadi amanqaku etyala aqeqeshwa ngalo, kwaye izisombululo zekhontrakthi zixhomekeke kuso. Iziko elingakhange lichaze ukusilela ukuhlawula ngokuchanekileyo, laza lasebenzisa loo nkcazelo ngokungaguqukiyo, alinako ukulinganisa umngcipheko wetyala ngendlela ehambelanayo.

Ukusilela ukuhlawula ngokuchasene nokulibala ukuhlawula ngokuchasene nokungasebenzi ngokuchasene nokucinywa

La magama mane achaza iimeko ezilandelelanayo kwaye asetyenziswa rhoqo ngokutshintshanayo, nto leyo engafanelekanga.

• Ukulibala ukuhlawula: Nayiphi na intlawulo ephosiweyo okanye efike emva kwexesha, ukususela kusuku olunye ukuya phambili. Yinkqubo eqhubekayo, hayi umda.
• Ukusilela ukuhlawula: Ukuwela umda ochazwe liziko — ngokwesiqhelo kwiintsuku ezingama-90 emva kwexesha lokuhlawula, okanye isigwebo sokungalindeleki kwentlawulo. Yimeko echaziweyo.
• Ukungasebenzi: Ulwahlulo lolawulo okanye lobalo-mali olusetyenziswa kutyhalomali olusileleyo. Ubukhulu becala luyafana nokusilela ukuhlawula, kodwa lumiselwa ngumlawuli okanye yinkqubo-sikhokelo yokunika ingxelo kunokuba lumiselwe ngumbolekisi.
• Ukucinywa kwemali-mboleko: Ukukhutshwa ebhalweni kwemali-mboleko xa kungasekho ukulindela okufanelekileyo kokubuyiselwa. Isenzo sobalo-mali esithathwa emva kokusilela ukuhlawula, hayi isithethantonye sako.

Imali-mboleko ingalibala ukuhlawula ingekho kwimeko yokusilela ukuhlawula, ibe ikwimeko yokusilela ukuhlawula ingekacinywa, kwaye — phantsi kovavanyo lokungalindeleki kwentlawulo — ikwimeko yokusilela ukuhlawula ingalibazisanga kwaphela.

Indlela yokuchazwa kokusilela ukuhlawula

Uvavanyo lobungakanani

Isixhobo esiqhelekileyo esibangela oku kukuba iintsuku ezingama-90 ezidlule emva kwexesha lokuhlawula kuyo nayiphi na intlawulo ebalulekileyo yenqununu okanye inzala. Phantsi kwe-IFRS 9 oku kuyintelekelelo enokuphikiswa: ukusilela ukuhlawula kucingelwa ukuba kwenzeka kungadlulanga iintsuku ezingama-90 emva kwexesha lokuhlawula, kwaye iziko lingathatha umda ongaphambili okanye ongasemva kuphela ngobungqina obufanelekileyo nobuxhasayo, busetyenziswe ngokungaguqukiyo.

Imigangatho yokubaluleka. Uninzi lwezikhokelo lufuna ukuba intlawulo ibe yinto ebalulekileyo phambi kokuba iwotshi yeentsuku ezigqithileyo iqale, kusetyenziswa isixa esipheleleyo, isixa esithelekiswayo (ipesenti yomngcipheko), okanye zombini. Ngaphandle koku, intsilelo encinci yokusondeza kwintlawulo inokwenza ngokomgaqo ukuba imali-mboleko ebisempilweni ibe sekungahlawulini.

Uvavanyo lwesimo — ukunganakwenzeka kokuhlawula

Umbolekwa usekwimeko yokungahlawuli xa ukuhlawulwa ngokupheleleyo akunakwenzeka ngaphandle kokubhenela ekuthengisweni kwesibambiso, kungakhathaliseki ukusilela kweentlawulo. Izinto eziqhelekileyo ezibangela oku:

• Ukungakwazi ukuhlawula amatyala, ukubhanga okanye ukupheliswa kweshishini
• Ukuvalwa kweshishini okanye ukuyeka ukurhweba
• Uhlengahlengiso olunzima — uncedo olunikelwa ngenxa yezizathu zekhredithi olwalungenakunikwa ngenye indlela
• Umngcipheko othengiswe ngelahleko ebalulekileyo enxulumene nekhredithi.
• Ukubaleka, ukufa ngaphandle kwelifa, okanye ukuphulukana nomthombo wengeniso owawuxhasa imali-mboleko
• Ukuhlawula ityala esele likho ngokuboleka okutsha kunokuba kusetyenziswe imisebenzi yoshishino

Imfuneko yokungqinelana

Phantsi kwe-IFRS 9, inkcazo yokungahlawuli esetyenziselwa ukuhlela izigaba kufuneka ingqinelane nenkcazo esetyenziselwa iinjongo zolawulo lomngcipheko wekhredithi lwangaphakathi. Ekusebenzeni, amaziko ahlala eneenkcazo ezininzi ezingachazwanga — enye kwi inkqubo yokuqokelela amatyala, enye kwimodeli yekhredithi, enye kwi ingxelo yolawulo — kwaye ukuzilungelelanisa yinto eqhelekileyo efunyanwa kuphicotho-zincwadi.

Iindidi Zokungahlawuli

Ukungahlawuli kwentlawulo (imali). Ukusilela ukuhlawula imali eyintloko, inzala okanye iintlawulo xa kufuneka zihlawulwe. Olona hlobo luxhaphakileyo kuboleko lwabathengi nakuboleko oluncinci.

Ukungahlawuli ngokobuchwephesha (okungeyomali). Ukwaphula uxanduva olungelulo olwentlawulo — isivumelwano sezimali, isibophelelo sokunika ulwazi, imfuneko ye-inshorensi, ukuthengiswa kwesibambiso ngaphandle kwemvume, okanye ukusetyenziswa kwemali ngokuchasene nenjongo yemali-mboleko. Kuqhelekile kumashishini amancinci naphakathi nakuboleko lwezorhwebo; umbolekwa usenokuhlawula ngokugqibeleleyo.

Ukungahlawuli okunqamlezayo. Igatya apho ukungahlawuli kuxanduva olunye kusenza ukungahlawuli kolunye, kangangokuba umbolekwa osilelayo kumbolekisi omnye ngokuzenzekelayo abe sekungahlawulini komnye umbolekisi. Kuqhelekile kumancedo ezorhwebo.

Ukungahlawuli okulindelekileyo. Umbolekwa uxela okanye abonise ukuba akayi kuluphumeza uxanduva lwexesha elizayo, okuvumela umbolekisi ukuba athathe amanyathelo phambi kokuba umhla wokuhlawula ufike.

Ukungahlawuli ngabom. Umboleki unakho ukuhlawula kodwa ukhetha ukungahlawuli — ngesiqhelo kuba ixabiso lokuqhubeka likhulu kunendleko zokuyeka. Ukwahlula oku kukungahlawuli okubangelwa bubunzima beemali kungumbuzo ophambili wokuxilonga kwingqokelela yamatyala, kuba impendulo echanekileyo yahlukile kwimeko nganye: ukunyanzelisa kwelinye, ukwakhiwa ngokutsha kwelinye.

Ukubala Amazinga Okungahlawuli

Akukho zinga linye lokungahlawuli. Iindlela ezintathu ezingezantsi nganye iyitshintsha kakhulu impendulo, kwaye zontathu kufuneka zichazwe.

Ukhetho 1: Iqela okanye ixesha?

Izinga lokungahlawuli leqela (i-vintage) — thatha zonke iimali-mboleko eziqaliswe ngexesha elimiselweyo kwaye ulinganise ukuba zingaphi ezingahlawulanga phakathi kwexesha lokuqwalasela elimiselweyo.

Izinga lokungahlawuli leqela = Iimali-mboleko kwiqela ezingahlawulanga phakathi kweenyanga ezi-n / Iimali-mboleko eziqaliswe kwiqela × 100

Le yindlela exhasa izigqibo zokunika imali-mboleko, kuba kubeka ukungahlawuli kwisigqibo sokuboleka esibangele oko.

Izinga lokungahlawuli lexesha — ukungahlawuli okwenzeka ngexesha elithile kwipotfoliyo ekuqaleni kwalo. Kulula, kodwa kugqwethwa kukukhula kwepotfoliyo ngendlela kanye echazwe ngezantsi.

Ukhetho 2: Ubalo okanye ixabiso?

Indlela esekelwe kubalo iphatha yonke imali-mboleko ngokulinganayo. Indlela esekelwe kwixabiso inika ubunzima ngokobungakanani bokubekwa emngciphekweni. Ziyahlukana nanini na xa ukungahlawuli kunxulumene noubungakanani bemboleko, nto leyo edla ngokwenzeka.

Ukhetho 3: Umda okanye ukongezeleleka?

Izinga lomda lokungahlawuli lizinga kwixesha elithile; izinga lokongezeleleka liyinxalenye iyonke yokungahlawuli ngexesha elithile ebomini bemboleko. Iigophe zokongezeleleka ziyimbono eluncedo ngakumbi ekumiseleni amaxabiso.

Umzekelo Osebenzayo

Iqela leemali-mboleko eziqaliswe ngenyanga enye, lijongwe kangangeenyanga ezilishumi elinesibini:

• Inani leemali-mboleko: iyonke yeqela eli-1,000 · ezingama-87 ezingahlawulanga · 8.7% (esekelwe kubalo)
• Imali ekhutshiweyo: 5,000,000 itotali ye-cohort · 520,000 ezisileleyo ukuhlawula · 10.4% (esekelwe kwixabiso)

Izinga elisekelwe kwixabiso liphezulu, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba iimali-mboleko ezinkulu kweli qela zisilele ukuhlawula ngezinga elikhulu kunezincinci — into engabonakaliyo kwinani elisekelwe kubalo kuphela, kwaye inxulumene ngqo nokuba ileli yokubolekisa eqhubekayo inyuka ngokukhawuleza kakhulu.

Umgibe wokuncipha kokukhula

Izinga lokusilela lwexesha liyehla ngokuzenzekelayo xa ipotfoliyo ikhula ngokukhawuleza, kuba iimali-mboleko ezisandula kukhutshwa azikabi nalo ixesha lokuvuthwa ukuze zingene ekusileleni ukuhlawula. Izinga liyathuthuzela kakhulu kanye xa ukukhula kugqitha umgangatho wokuhlola umngcipheko. Uhlalutyo lwe-cohort sisilungiso esisemgangathweni, kwaye kuphela kwento enokuthenjelwa.

Izibonakalisi zokuSilela ukuHlawula kwangoko

Ukusilela kwintlawulo yokuqala (FPD). Ummboleki uyasilela ukuhlawula isavenge sokuqala esicwangcisiweyo. Oku phantse akunakuba kukungabinakho ukuhlawula ngesiquphe — luphawu lobuthathaka kuvavanyo lwemboleko okanye lobuqhophololo, kwaye yenye yeendlela ezikhawulezayo zokubona umgangatho wokukhutshwa kwemboleko. I-FPD kufuneka ilandelwe ngokwahlukileyo kwaye inikelwe kwisebe letyala, ingafihlwa kumanani adityanisiweyo okuqokelelwa kweentlawulo.

Ukusilela kwangoko (EPD). Ukusilela phakathi kwezavenge ezimbini okanye ezintathu zokuqala. Ukutolika okufanayo, umqondiso obuthathaka kancinane.

Zombini zizibonakalisi ezandulelayo: zivela kwiiveki nje emva kotshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo, ngelixa amazinga okusilela e-cohort ethatha iinyanga kwaye imilinganiselo ye-potfoliyo ithatha ixesha elide nangakumbi.

Ithuba lokuSilela ukuHlawula (PD)

Ithuba lokusilela ukuhlawula lithuba eliqikelelwayo lokuba umboleki asilele ukuhlawula kwisithuba esithile — iinyanga ezilishumi elinesibini, okanye ubomi obuseleyo be-exposure.

I-PD yenye yeeparamitha ezintathu ekubaleni kwelahleko yetyala elilindelekileyo:

ECL = PD × LGD × EAD, kuthotywe ngesaphulelo

Phantsi kwe-IFRS 9, ii-exposures zenqanaba loku-1 zisebenzisa i-PD yeenyanga ezili-12 kwaye ii-exposures zenqanaba lesi-2 nelesi-3 zisebenzisa i-PD yobomi bonke. Uqikelelo lwe-PD lwakhiwa ngokusuka kumazinga embali abonwayo okusilela ngokwesegment, emva koko luhlengahlengiswe ngokweemeko zoqoqosho ezijonge phambili.

Iingongoma ezimbini ezisebenzayo:

• I-PD ilungile kuphela kangangenkcazo yokusilela esemva kwayo. Ukuba idatha yembali yaqokelelwa phantsi kwenkcazo ethile kwaye imodeli isetyenziswa phantsi kwenye, uqikelelo alunakwamkelwa.
• Ukwahlulahlula kuqhuba ukuchaneka. Kwiipotfoliyo zeemali-mboleko ezincinci kakhulu nezincinci, inombolo yomjikelo wemboleko, imveliso, indlela yokusebenza, icandelo nesebe zidla ngokuba zizinto ezinamandla ngakumbi zokwahlula kunalo naluphi na uphawu olunye lomboleki — ababoleki bomjikelo wokuqala basilela ukuhlawula ngamazinga aphezulu kakhulu kunababoleki abaphindayo.

Iziphumo zokuSilela ukuHlawula

Kumbolekisi:

• Ukuqwalaselwa kwenzala kuyatshintsha — ngokuqhelekileyo kungabi nokongezwa kwenzala, okanye phantsi kwe-IFRS 9 inqanaba lesi-3, inzala ibalwa kwixabiso elithwalwayo eliseleyo.
• Ilahleko yetyala elilindelekileyo yobomi bonke iyasebenza, inyusa kabukhali isibonelelo.
• Ukuhlelwa njengelingasebenziyo, kunye nesibonelelo esimiselweyo sommiselo.
• Amanyathelo okulungisa ngokwesivumelwano ayafumaneka: ukukhawulezisa intsalela epheleleyo, inzala yokusilela apho kuvunyelwe ngumthetho, ukunyanzeliswa kwesibambiso, amabango abaqinisekisi
• Ubungozi budlulela kwingqokelela, ekulungisweni okanye ekubuyiselweni.

Kumboleki:

• Ingxelo embi ye-credit bureau, ethintela ukufikelela kwikredithi kwixesha elizayo.
• Ukukhawuleziswa kwentsalela eseleyo.
• Iintlawulo zohlwayo, ngokuxhomekeke kwimida ephezulu esebenzayo.
• Ukunyanzeliswa kwesibambiso esibekiweyo.
• Amanyathelo asemthethweni kunye nesigwebo esinokwenzeka.
• Kwiimali-mboleko zeqela, iziphumo zifikelela nakwamanye amalungu ngokuxanduva oludityanelweyo okanye ukuvalwa kwenkqubela.

Iziphumo ezikwicala lomboleki zisisizathu sokuba iinkcazo zokusilela kunye nokusetyenziswa kwazo zibe nobunzima bokhuseleko lwabathengi, hayi nje ubunzima kobalo-mali.

Ukunyanga nokuSilela Kwakhona

Ubungozi obusileleyo bubuyela kwisimo esisebenzayo kuphela emva kwexesha lovavanyo lweentlawulo ezingaguqukiyo, ezihambelana neshedyuli — hayi ngokufumana intlawulo enye yokuvala isithuba. Uvavanyo lukho ngqo ukuze luthintele intlawulo eyenzeka kanye ukuseta ngokutsha ubume bemali-mboleko eyonakele ngokusisiseko.

Izinga lokusilela kwakhona — umlinganiselo wobungozi obunyangiweyo okanye obuhlengahlengisiweyo obuphinda busilele — yenye yeendlela zokulinganisa ezinika ulwazi kwaye zingalandelelwa kancinane kumngcipheko wetyala. Izinga eliphezulu lokusilela kwakhona kwiimali-mboleko ezihlengahlengisiweyo libonisa ukuba ukuhlela ngokutsha kusetyenziselwa ukuhlehlisa ukuqatshelwa kunokuba kusombulule iingxaki zokwenene zomthamo wokuhlawula.

Isilumkiso sokubuyisela ubudala. Ukucwangcisa ngokutsha kuseta ngokutsha isibali seentsuku ezidlulileyo. Apho ukusilela kuchazwa kuphela ngeentsuku ezidlulileyo, ukuhlela ngokutsha kungasusa ubungozi ekusileleni ngaphandle kokuphucuka kwimeko yomboleki. Yiyo loo nto ukuhlela ngokutsha ngenxa yobunzima ngokwako kungumbonakaliso wokungakwazi ukuhlawula kwiinkqubo ezininzi eziyilwe kakuhle.

Imigibe Eqhelekileyo

• Iinkcazo ezininzi ezingahambelaniyo kwiingqokelela, ekwenziweni kweemodeli zetyala, kubalo-mali kunye nokunikelwa kwengxelo ngokwemigaqo kwiziko elinye.
• Ukungachazi inani ngokuchasene nexabiso xa kukhankanywa izinga lokusilela.
• Amazinga exesha elithile ngexesha lokukhula — ukuhlanjululwa kubenza babonakale bengcono kunokuba benjalo.
• Akukho mda wokubaluleka, ngoko iintsilelo ezingabalulekanga zibangela ukusilela kobuchwepheshe.
• Iintlawulo ezingaphelelanga ziqalisa ixesha ngokutsha — apho intlawulo encinci iphinda iyenza i-akhawunti ibonakale ingekagugi ngaphandle kokulungisa iintsalela, umlinganiselo uye uphucuke kodwa umngcipheko awuphucuki.
• Ukungahoyi uvavanyo lomgangatho, ukuthatha ukusilela ukuhlawula njengokubala nje ngoomatshini kweentsuku ezigqithileyo emva komhla wokuhlawula kwaye uphose amatyala ekucacileyo ukuba akunakwenzeka ukuba abuyiselwe.
• Ukusilela ukuchaza iwindow yokuqwalasela kuhlalutyo lweqela — izinga lokusilela leenyanga ezi-6 nelo leenyanga ezi-24 kwiqela elifanayo ngamanani ahluke ngokupheleleyo.